ENIC must sell

For years I have said Levy was the well paid shield. The protective layer. Now that layer has been removed and the real issue is exposed. The ownership.

If we survive this season, and that is not guaranteed, this summer has to be their final opportunity to prove they understand what they own. Not a fucking property asset. Not a balance sheet exercise. A football club.

My view is simple. ENIC would sell tomorrow at the right number. The problem is the number. The stadium debt sits around £1 billion. The last widely referenced enterprise valuation was roughly €3.5 billion according to Football Benchmark. Since then the equity value has been quoted in the £2 to £2.5 billion range depending on performance and league status. That is a big swing. League position is not cosmetic, it is fundamental to valuation, and relegation would cause significant carnage in so many ways.

So here we are. Four points off being dragged into something none of us thought possible a few years ago. And they are gambling, now praying that we retain our Premier League status.

On Sunday there was a reminder of what we once were when Dele Alli appeared at half time.

It felt like a flashback. Energy. Swagger. Belief. The Dele era was not perfect but it was alive. Since then it has been a badly managed decade of decline, all at our expense.

We had Harry Kane in his prime. We had Son Heung min at his peak. Statistically the most productive partnership in Premier League history. Forty seven goal combinations between them. Fourteen in one season alone.

That was a generational window. The correct move was obvious. Add two or three elite players. Push. Take the risk to turn us in to the club we should be, not the laughing stock we have become.

Instead we traded down. We squeezed maximum commercial value out of the stars, delayed the inevitable, and when Kane wanted to win something meaningful he left. Son stayed, carried it with dignity, even lifted silverware, but the cycle had already turned.

This is the pattern. Modric left and won everything at Real Madrid. Bale left and won everything at Real Madrid. Berbatov left and won at Manchester United. Walker left and collected medal after medal at Manchester City. We recycle the story every few years, when our old stars show up for a reminder of what could have been, and stick them up on the jumbo screen following the embarrassing fucking TIFO, thinking that appeases us

It is not bad luck. It is a model.

They are not football people. They see controlled risk, sustainable growth, asset appreciation. What they do not see is timing. Football is about timing. When you have a window you attack it. You do not stagnate every single time, but that’s what ENIC do and it will never change.

Now the irony. The valuation they have carefully cultivated is directly tied to on pitch performance and league security. Relegation would not just hurt pride. It would crush enterprise value, commercial income, global profile, and refinancing dynamics on that stadium debt.

So the question is simple. If you know the metrics, if you know the valuation is sensitive to league status, why allow the squad to drift into this position? Why under invest when the downside risk is so obvious?

There are explanations. None of them are flattering, some I feel include gambling our future because it suits ENIC's way of thinking. Sadly it has nothing to do with football and everything to do with power and greed.

All I know is this. The ownership model has run its course. Twenty plus years is not a short term experiment. It is a full era. And the era has delivered two trophies and a stadium, that being their most important achievement.

ENIC have to sell, they are the whole reason for everything wrong with our beloved club, they do not have our best interests at heart and now our future is looking extremely uncertain.

Because right now we are not competing with the elite. We are looking over our shoulder.